Artificial Intelligence, the Credit Bubble, and Bitcoin

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Part 1: A Simple Definition

Here is a simple definition of Artificial intelligence that works for all scenarios – Any software that does certain cognitive tasks better than a human.

By this criterion, computer opponents within video games are artificial intelligences.

All search algorithms are artificial intelligence. Some are just better than others. E.g. A document word-search algorithm vs a webpage search algorithm.

Even a software that counts numbers is artificially intelligent because by counting faster than humans, it just did a cognitive task (counting numbers) much better than humans. It has what Nick Bostrom calls “Speed Intelligence”.

By this definition, all software that works is artificially intelligent.

Certainly, if it falls below human capabilities then we just dump it.

It is neither good software no worthy of being called AI.

The beauty with this is that it make it easy to put the entire range of programs that “do cognitive tasks better than humans” on a single scale without fear of leaving anything out.

It also makes looking at them all under a microscope easier.

Otherwise, the academic literature bothers to differentiate weak AI from strong AI, human trained from self-trained, autonomous tasks vs a pseudo-random evolving software vs an evolving neural network.

Now there is a pernicious thing with the “evolving type” of AI. This is the type that can make inferences on the future based on given data, and if it’s predictions are correct based on certain feedback mechanisms, it can be improved or it can improve itself based on this feedback.

How does it make predictions?

Warning – Technobabble ahead:

Two common techniques include Regression Analysis and Bayesian Inference. But firstly, classifying data well is half the trouble.

A hot-news example is the Google AI LaMDa that got one of the company’s engineers, Blake Lemoine, fired for calling it sentient. In the not-so-distant past, we were awed by the performances of OpenAI’s DALL-E and GPT3, IBM’s Watson, Google’s DeepMind AIs, Alexa, Cortana, etc.

The deal with these AIs really is how well they integrate the aggregate of human knowledge or self-taught gaming experience so as to appear to be human-like. And sometimes superhuman.

And it makes sense.

On the hardware side we know that working with big autonomous machine-complexes e.g. autonomous car making factories is most efficient. As is working with big energy systems e.g Steam Turbines the size of small houses and Hydro-Electric Dams the size of Big houses.

 On the software/ data side, collecting as much data as possible and smartly processing it in layers of an artificial neural network should also do wonders.

If the world was a fair place, Big Data driven companies like Google would be putting a lot more smiles on people’s faces than currently. But here is the problem – cheap credit.

As these companies get more powerful, they can access more zero interest credit (and sometimes negative interest credit on top of government grants) than smaller companies and businesses anywhere in the world.

There is a simpler definition of artificial Intelligence. But as I give it, I’m not going to go easy on AI.

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Part 2: AI Criticized

Artificial Intelligence can be defined as what Big Data companies like Google use to make billions of dollars every year despite giving you “free” products like cutting edge search services, video hosting services on YouTube (which you can monetize), location services.

Name them. They are all FREE!

When one Google searches they will see that their main source of revenue is advertising which means that as people spend so much time online enjoying Google’s free things, they cannot help taking some minutes off to spend on what it suggests.

But what are these ads mostly about anyway?

What are people spending on?

More Googling reveals Amazon as the biggest spender on Google ads.

Hence retail consumer spending.

And what are the most bought goods on Amazon?

Doesn’t matter. They all consumed fossil fuels to get there (and to be made at all) and yet fossil fuels are unbelievably expensive right now.

So who is buying all these now-expensive toys?

Mostly people with access to cheap credit as you do not expect many a villager in Uganda to live on buying things from Amazon.

SO, this is how Big Data companies like Google are sucking up cheap credit.

Add to this the fact that Google pays about 8% in taxes while the average American pays 13%, and you now know why they cannot help but make billions and billions of dollars.

As the lower income classes with neither AIs to get them some much needed targeted advertising nor big data superhuman capabilities nor cheap credit, remain in the dust.

But I see a silver lining on this dark cloud.

As these big AI companies grow, they can and will build cheaper tools that will serve the masses when the credit bubble bursts.

Google is inflating the credit bubble by simply growing and growing on cheap credit from tax breaks, cheap credit from consumers spending cheap credit, et cetera.

You bet, they also invest and feed on high speed trading AIs on Wall Street.

 So the pernicious cycle will continue until it all unravels.

Because you cannot keep pushing a Bugatti to maximum speed when the tank is getting emptier and emptier.

I have no beef with Google. It is an awesome company. I have a Gmail account and I use Android products. But Google could do a lot more to Not Be Evil.

For Energy, Healthy food and Utilities are getting more expensive as smartphones get more awesome.

It is therefore a very good state of affairs for the system to jump onto a sounder bandwagon. Despite the destructive that might cause to the system and the new bandwagon.

Bitcoin will thrive and unleash its wonders when instead of building more data driven business models, humans shift to building more energy and cyclic-resources driven business models.

Because I think there is a thing as worthless data.

Too much data.

Like the knowledge many Ugandans pick up in O’level, a lot of big data is and will be just occupying server space to no avail.

Data trying to work in a world devoid of the resources to support it.

It is like a very smart student trying to do mathematical sums on an empty stomach.

It will not work.

They eventually fall into delirium. Ecstasies and fancies take over. As with the NFT and the Alt-crypto craze.

Smart people trying to live on mere hope and intelligence is not possible. They need good food, clean water, families, friends, real world community (not in a metaverse for Christ’s sake. We are not yet digital intelligences).

Eventually they resort to drugs, theft, violence as substitutes.

 And the systems that be blame the people and not the systems themselves.

So what will happen is that Elon Musk may even be successful with his Optimus robots. I hope he is.

Google and friends will build bigger AIs, make trillions of dollars and cheaper smartphones, laptops, electric cars, trading algorithms, farming techniques.

They’ll all deploy their stuff. Then the market will crash and all these will be freebies.

Robots aside, when the market crashes coz of the CB (credit bubble), smartphones will be dirt cheap.

Everybody will have a chance to experiment with them.

Then what do you know, they will discover Bitcoin.

Their old friend.

Once upon a time, hardly valuable.

Now, extremely so.

Few people will gain from their NFTs as most NFT art is actually stored on a centralised database with some mumble jumbo that looks like a Blockchain.

So fakes abound.

Only Bitcoin will remain what it claims. And it will pick up the pieces of the economy strewn all over by fiat and AI.

Part 3: AI Vindicated

Have you heard about Web5?

Really? From whom?

As we have discovered, artificial intelligence(AI) affects credit creation and also affects Bitcoin.

AI and credit expansion are top ranking tools for stimulating economic activity, recession or no recession. The first one because it is the biggest driver of economic efficiency in the 21st century a la deflationary economics i.e. make goods cheaper by creating synergized economies of scale, cut costs by aggregating production to millions of small businesses (of sorts), hence maximize profits.

 The second because it is the biggest pump-up of economic zeal. Basically, it is the steroids. Print cheap credit and give most of it to the rich. This will squeeze the lower income classes so that lo and behold, they work harder than ever so as not to starve.

Evidently, I’m no fan of credit creation. It is crude, archaic, and preschool easy. It cheaply modifies human behaviour to see results instead of asking the hard questions and doing the hard work.

Instead of staring at the ugly facts in the face without averting its gaze to look at the pretty illusion over there.

Now artificial intelligence, like credit expansion, does not require that people are so individualist in their lifestyle. It requires common traits and the easier these are to discern, the cheaper the entire enterprise.

So as it is right now, Bitcoin is a very individualist enterprise but there is good news this part round.

It is called Web5.

To cut through all the crypto-speak, Web5 is Web 3+2.

Further simplified, it will be a merger of Web2 (AI-powered internet services and products be they blogs, intellectual property cloud-stores, vlogs, websites) with the Web3 (Bitcoin mostly. The King of Web3).

Web2 is simply the internet and Web3 is the blockchain.

So, what is the point of having AI merging with blockchain technology?

Because it allows us to find common interests within the individualism of our Bitcoin lives.

Also important is that we can track important changes to our Bitcoin individualism faster with an AI around, while still enjoying the privacy we signed up for in the first place.

Think of it like having exclusive rights to a specific Bit-torrent download, without needing to store all those torrent files either locally or on a specific server in some Big Data company’s cloud storage.

Ideally, you can put your digital identity inside a wallet and know it will not be devalued by ads (the equivalent of monetary inflation in the digital-identity world.  It expands your identity by adding all those targeted ads to your digital footprint). Is that cool or what?

To be more pragmatic, imagine we could build a big online store like Amazon but only for Bitcoin trading AND pseudonymous-ized.

i.e. Jeff Bezos cannot know about you if he was forced to.

Well, it is quite the dream.

Did I mention you will sidestep inflation forever?

References:

– The Netflix Mini Series “The Billion Dollar Code”

https://hackernoon.com/the-sad-truth-about-opensea

5 life hacks for busy people that want to keep healthy

If you have a 9 to 5 job, you are a buzzy busy person whose schedule may not have much space for exercise, mindfulness and yoga.

Nor Whole-being.

So here is how to hack a few things health while running through your routine:

1 – Do push ups when you wake up

THIS has the benefit of getting bowel movements to happen quicker so you don’t have to think of taking a dump when hauling a taxi or in the thick of an important meeting.

Also, it will make you hungry enough for breakfast.

2 – Walk to Work some part of the way

If the only walking you ever do is to and from your car, I implore you to climb the stairs to your corner office first thing.

Do not get too exhausted and do this at least an hour before the work meetings with clients or colleagues. You don’t want to seem tired before the day has even began.

3 – Do not get too full at lunch

This can be appreciated with experience. Leaving yourself unsatisfied, if channeled into your work, will make you think it is your work that needs improving.

Then you will tap into the flow and you will fly to the heights of intellectual fulfilment.

4 – Eat slowly. Make yourself jealous of your self-control

Eating too fast will cause you indigestion, acid build up and we do not want that.

Chewing properly is half the medication for preventing stomach upsets. The other half is eating healthy food.

5 – Enjoy yourself

Choose to care about something at work. It could be for the client whose success pleases you. It could be for the intricate details of the work process.

Get lost in it all. Savour the culture whether fast or slow. Do not get too attached, but do make an effort. An effort that makes you feel good about yourself for trying to attain an ideal.

Read some Rumi. And laugh.

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The Hyper-object

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Only 200 years ago, nobody had any notion of “the climate”.

Not to mention “climate change”.

Today, millions of people, from every country on earth, know. And many of these are concerned about it.

This is nothing short of spectacular.

That billions of people know of a global phenomenon and feel strongly a need to do something about it is incredible.

Have they ever met?

No.

Are they being coerced by something? Maybe in the global media?

Yes. But it is not in the global media.

What is it?

There are debates out there on why the loud voices over “the climate” but essentially, my opinion is that the force is a good one.

It is in their love for a better tomorrow.

There is a need to create a sort of “paradisiacal” environment and atmosphere for everybody.

Lush greenery, clean air, fertile soils.

Lots of technological oomph without the pollution. Not even energy pollution.

This is what people want.

Some sort of utopian surrounding that nourishes all.

In a way, it is a less ambitious goal than the communist ideal. And in a way, it feels more fair.

I mean, why shouldn’t everybody have access to sustainable clean water.

Forget making everyone wealthy or own a car. Let’s just get them all some clean water.

But how?

When our global economy is running on fossil fuels and social responsibility comes second after making a profit, how.

There are more debates online.

Ideas exchanges on Twitter, Facebook, Zoom.

Idea exchanges powered by fossil fuels.

From the horrific mass reduction ones to the naysayer ones where there really is no problemo.

But the point is, people are talking.

Trying to negotiate a global future together.


Luckily, lurking on the periphery are some breakthroughs.

They are yet to warrant being brought to the fore, but the fact that they might work keeps everyone’s hopes up.

I had forgotten about nuclear fusion until a week or so ago when I landed on a youtube video of the ITER project. I smiled.

It is a BIG project with dozens of countries in collaboration.

IF it works, bye bye fossil fuels.

Now that is exciting.

It is so exciting somebody made a Youtube video on it and made money on that Youtube video from the hundreds of thousands of views.

And I think this is exactly what we need to do.

Sell more hope. Not hype.

There is little difference as I type this but there should be.

Hope in a breakthrough that will actually change the world as we know it, for the better.

Is it necessary?

I am in my 20s. Massive changes for the better are what me and my peers live for.

If humanity has so far been able to only hunt deers. We want to be the generation where humanity starts hunting mammoths.

If the current system is one where we know how to do things while throwing a lot away as garbage, we want to be the generation where everything seems to be recyclable.

We want a fairy tale of our own. In real life.

Gone are the days of crossing oceans to go discover new lands but it must have been great fun for the Explorers.

A great sense of achievement for a great achievement.

Did some things go wrong? Of course.

Slave trade boomed and here we are.

But did we create a global village?

We sure did.

And I think every country is better for it.


So, when do we switch off the fossil fuels?

Nobody knows, but this should be exciting.

And no, I do not want anybody to cut back. I want humanity to overhaul.

I want apotheosis. Not running back to safety in our caves.

Consume the fossils faster while deploying the renewables fasterrr.

It is a dream and it doesn’t hurt anybody, fossil lover or not.

If there ever was a time to get greedy about something, this should be it.

In fact, all this talk of cutting back must be causing some of the distress in the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

People feeling that fossils are bad is very bad for business. But I am not a mindless supporter of either one side (the fossil trumpers) or the other (the fossil haters).

I love the facts and they look beautiful to me.

Now is the time to get the engines roaring. So that we reach our destination.

This is the only thing scientists should be explaining to us.

How to make it.

“We are in trouble” is so boring and such obvious doomsday clickbait.

“Here is how we transition” is the only story I am not hearing enough of.

Bill Gates did a good job with his book on how to stop a climate disaster. Except he left out the part where we make it across.

He left out the part where we stop a climate disaster!

He could write another book. A non-fiction statistical wonderland in which this happens. Complete with fairy tale quantum steam punk engines (hat off to Dr. Nicole Yunger Halpern) and relentless engineers.

Say I wonder why he shorted Tesla’s stock. I think it was inappropriate.

Bill and Elon on the same table looks good.

“Business at the Speed of Traffic” could be the title of their book.

Doesn’t sound like it is about solving climate change? Exactly.

It must have a Sherlock Holmes’ likeness.

A grande quasi-scientific tour de force. A sci-fi magnus opus.

Ulala.

I enjoy it already.

Bitcoin Free Speech

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“Bitcoin encourages illegal activity” – stone #1

I have heard this one before so many times. And today I felt it needed some thinking about.

Before we judge whether it is right to throw this type of stone at Bitcoin I feel it is imperative to speak the truth of what this crypto is.

Bitcoin is the only self-sustained monetary system that can be accounted for 100%. And it does this itself.

It is so based on physics and reality that any pollutant carbon atom that goes into the air because of Bitcoin can be traced back to Bitcoin using Bitcoin’s own transactions history!

Imagine that. That level of transparency.

If anything on this planet is honest to the bone, that is Bitcoin’s coding.

This isn’t just free speech. This is the cold hard truth and it makes the world a better place, not less.

Acknowledging cold and hardness makes you know you need some cushy warm hugging. It is healthy. Denying it is just silly.

But we should give credit where it is due and if weighed on golden scales, the amount of value created by Bitcoin every second trumps any carbon pollution it might be held responsible for.

Ladies and Gentlemen, nobody can say the same thing for any of the fiat currencies out there be it the mighty US Dollar or my Ugandan Shilling.

So, does Bitcoin encourage illegal activity?!

That’s like asking if a place full of good things to eat, drink and make merry about, encourages illegal activity.

Such a place encourages everybody to rush and grab a slice. And if rushing to grab a slice leads to some wild behaviour and that is illegal, well, life is full of illegality.

But let’s not forget, the law is made by governments. And governments are good at shining a spotlight on their competition while they remain in the obscure dark.

If anybody was to talk about the “illegal activities encouraged by fiat” we would need centuries just to get started. It is too much.

Also, if anybody was to talk about the amount of energy pollution created by fiat versus the value created by it every second, then fiat would have such high energy-pollution-to-financial-value figures it would leave Bitcoin in the dust.

Talk Tesla S Plaid versus _

I gotta say though, the fiat monies have great PR. Damn do they know how to look good.

Like a hot damsel from the ‘90s with a cigarette.

The Bitcoin community is trying but it is yet to come up with something as tasty as “The Wolf of Wall Street”, though with more financial sense than mere greed. (BTW I loved this movie. DiCaprio is awesome).

Their PR budgets are big, they have years of accrued privilege going for them. And by privilege I mean “people are used to it”. People being used to something is a phenomenal power.

Big up fiat.

Indeed, “Let it be done”. No wonder @elonmusk loves Dogecoin.

Also, government power as backed by their firm grip on fiat is also very alluring. Honestly, nobody wants to be in a country with a weak government. Not even a Bitcoin maximalist.

Bitcoin’s only flaw is its refusal to stop giving individuals more power than the government, the corporation, the whatever is in charge.

Coz here is the thing, once people do not believe in it. It dies.

Simple.

It lives in our hearts. It is a true love-child.

Bitcoin is a true measure of how well humans love cooperating (or worrying about what other people think. Oops. We need to fix that).

Say Google cannot force the world to love Bitcoin. We shall end up hating Google and Bitcoin and Bitcoin will fall.

Also, let’s assume Google steals all the Bitcoin in the world and holds it over us like some damned carrot. Expecting us to love it even more?

Wrong move.

 Now we don’t trust it anymore. It’s value collapses so fast even the Bearish will be caught off guard.

Bitcoin ALWAYS wants the individual empowered.

So what will governments do? What they always do. Pull out the biggest guns you ever saw.

Only they can afford them.

Shoot such heavy cannon balls at Bitcoin its price keeps fluctuating with the shock waves.

Oh, poor Bitcoin. Will you make it?

Will you make it to a $ 21 trillion-dollar valuation as per the dollar value of 2022??

Ooh.


“Bitcoin is not a stable asset. Anyway, governments will shut it down soon” – Planetary killer stone #2 (The final one).

I am yet to read what Professor Saifedean Ammous wrote about this asteroid in his latest ‘The Fiat Standard’ but I want to congratulate him for not encouraging “Don’t Look Up” behaviour.

If the Bitcoin world is to survive it needs to look up. And prepare accordingly. Coz this stone is coming and it’s not likely to miss.

The first thing we need to freely speak about is how governments can live in a post-Bitcoin world.

Honestly, they are scared of the Bitcoin. It is luring away their sheep. It promises better grass and actually fulfils its promise.

But we need governments. Governments are our shield from our own excesses and wildness. No corporation so far has a better sense of providing social services than government.

The other truth people in the Bitcoin camp may not want to hear is that Bitcoin is not good for anybody if it suddenly becomes the only currency on the scene.

Suddenly gets too valuable.

Call it the hodler-paradox. Bitcoin prices could shoot up while people lack food to eat.

Why?

We are hodling.

Bitcoin encourages hyper-saving. Basically, think of a croony old pirate burying his gold coins instead of spending them on luscious goods in the market.

The market collapses to give way to treasure-hunting passions and campaigns. Which are too bloody and archaic for the average citizen and netizen of today.

Humanity as a whole is still not used to the problems of overcorrection and Bitcoin too is not immune to them. The only solution is we learn slowly how to live and let live.

Keep some Bitcoin in your highly encrypted cave. And keep some to participate in the good ol’ community mannerisms of trading this for that. Tit for tat. It is a fair, fun and life-enriching game.

The fiat currencies and crypto-altcoins try to solve this problem of educating people on how to embrace free market exchange by simply short-changing them on their future.

Basically, they make spending today so much better than waiting for tomorrow that people don’t always buy things coz they will feel enriched by them. They rush to buy coz tomorrow their money will be worthless.

It is a cheap psychological party trick that works. And its power is rationalized even further by the paradox-of-thrift idea – Spending is good for the economy. Saving hurts everybody.

No wonder economic recessions lead to such carnage. There is nothing saved for a rainy day.

Bitcoin will solve this. Indeed, Bitcoin should be used to buttress our global economy.

Yes, it is a tight-rope walking act.

It will require that governments let go of some reigns while keeping onto others.

It will see a government authority being challenged and some governments will respond with brute force.

It will see America look foolish with its dollars. Of course, only people that want to see something fresh will push for this. Rich, middleclass, or financially struggling.

Maybe food should be traded in Bitcoin whenever it can. It could be a worthy experiment in ending world hunger.

Also, don’t even get me started on fossil fuels. Fiat consumes more fossil fuels than Bitcoin does. Bitcoin cannot catch up.

AND, Bitcoin is a good metric of how energy efficient our computers have become. And guess what, they are still not good enough. At least says Climate Change.

Only thing left is to transition to unlimited sunlight and become a space faring civilization already.

Take Bitcoin to outer space.

It is so cold out there, there will be no need of cooling fans.

Elon do something. We need to get green like last year.

If it requires fiat doge, so be it.

 Let it be done.